Predict the price of oil in three months, one year, and four years.

Predict the price of oil in three months, one year, and four years. Please predict the closing prices for NYMEX crude oil future contracts – WTI – West Texas Intermediate with delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma for:

December 2020 delivery (CLZ20)
December 2021 delivery (CLZ21)
December 2025 delivery (CLZ25)
The latter two contracts will not close before the semester’s end.
In 4 pages maximum, please explain the rationale for your predictions. You may wish to identify “drivers” for supply and demand. Bubble diagrams and other graphic illustrations are acceptable. Mathematical models are not required!

Provide a brief overview, take a position, defend it. Points subtracted for advising instructor that exercise is widely-known for being difficult if not impossible.

Justin Wolfer’s work suggests that current market prices are a good indicator of future market prices; DO NOT use his methodology since tens of thousands of traders don’t agree. I’m looking for your independent market view…not someone else’s!

If you reference a particular analyst’s forecast (e.g., firms like Goldman Sachs occasionally issue “oil outlook” newsletters, etc.), please make sure you review another, and discuss their differences, or lack thereof. Again, I’m interested in your view, not a review of other’s thinking.

Clearly note the THREE (3) requested numbers at the beginning of your submission.

Concluding statements such as “in the range of” or “around” or “maybe” will be penalized. The deadline for this Assignment is a HARD deadline. Late submissions will be penalized.

Helpful Reading:
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/prices-and-outlook.php
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_contract_specifications.html#prodType=undefined