Evaluate Short-term Forecasting Nominal Oil Price
April 19, 2021 Comments Off on Evaluate Short-term Forecasting Nominal Oil Price Uncategorized Assignment-help
Words: 210
Pages: 1
Subject: Uncategorized

Evaluate the Forecast Nominal Oil Price on 1,3,6,9,12 month horizon based on ‘Forecasting the Price’ by Alquist, Killian, Vigfusson (2011) – using models in section 5.1, 5.2.1, 5.2.4 (except equation 16 & 17). The oil price will be both (monthly) Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma and Brent Crude Europe. For WTI the initial estimation window (for regression based models) is 1992/01-1996/12. Forecast evaluation starts from 1997/01-2019/06. For Brent the initial estimation window (for regression based models) is 1994/07-1999/06. Forecast evaluation starts from 1999/07-2019/06. NaN should be omitted if appears. The programming language is not limited to R, Stata and Matlab, please provide explanation alongside the code and attach the completely code when the work is completed. The forecast evaluation and the success ratio is the same as the paper, can be referred to Table 4. Tables are produced as the format of Table 4-8. If the Pesaran & Timmermann Tests is too challenging for the writer, can switch to measures as Kuiper Scores or Hit Ratio, depending on the choice of the writer. The content include an executive summary, description of data and models and methodology, result evaluation and compare the against the primary paper of reference and give the practical implications. For the format, please use normal margin, font size @11 using Arial. Bold for new headings.